Gualala, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

892
FXUS66 KEKA 272010
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
110 PM PDT Tue May 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer weather will continue through late week. Hot
temperatures developing Friday and Saturday for the interior
before a likely quick cooldown in temperatures into early next
week.

KEY MESSAGES:

-Temperatures are forecast to warm to triple digits Friday and
Saturday

-Moderate to some areas of Major HeatRisk are forecast Friday and
Saturday for the interior

-85% to 96% chance for high temperatures to exceed 100 F Friday
 in the warmer interior valleys

-75 to 85% probability for high temperatures to exceed 100 F in
 the warmest interior valleys on Saturday



&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure ridging is building back in today with
warming temperatures. There will be increasing chances for
coastal stratus and some patchy fog this week. A weak cutoff low
will develop in Central to Southern CA Wednesday. There are hints
that this feature will generate enough forcing and elevated
moisture/instability for some convective showers and perhaps low-
end chanced for a thunderstorm or two along the border of or
through Trinity County Wednesday afternoon. Moisture continues to
look highly limited, but SREF has maintained a 10% chance for this
scenario, so it bears watching. A second cutoff low is modeled to
move off the S CA coast late Wednesday as a Rex Block type of
pattern develops.

A weak trough and decaying front will clip the region Thursday,
increasing cloudcover and currently only bringing less than 10%
chance for trace amounts of precipitation to far north Del Norte.
The ridge is then forecast to amplify much higher Friday and
Saturday with triple digit heat forecast and highly probable. NBM
currently now holds a 85% to 96% chance for high temperatures to
exceed 100 F Friday in the warmer interior valleys. Saturday now
has similar but less overall magnitude of heat, with a 75 to 85%
probability for high temperatures to exceed 100 F in the warmest
interior valleys. This cooler nudge is due to the now earlier
influence of a forecast trough. The combination of the forecast
high temperatures with some warmer overnight lows, a lack of
acclimation to this relatively early-season heat wave will create
widespread Moderate to some areas of Major HeatRisk. Caution is
advised with outdoor activity.


Ensembles continue to depict influence of the described trough
late Saturday to Sunday, quickly lowering temperatures There is
questions in the depth of this trough, and how far south it digs,
but there is the potential for an anomalously cold upper trough to
deepen and move in from the north early next week. This could
mean an even more dramatic cooldown of temperatures, late season
precipitation or even thunderstorm activity depending on how the
low evolves. The Climate Prediction Center is leaning towards
above normal precipitation for day 6-10 over CA. Strong to very
strong northerly winds are beginning to take shape in the
forecast over the weekend, but the strength of these winds will
also be determined by how the low evolves. NBM holds high chances
for gusts over 40 mph Sunday (78%) for much of the coast and
interior ridges. There are also decent probabilities for gusts of
45 mph for the more exposed coastal headlands. JJW




&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail during the daylight
hours. Low stratus is steadily burning off near KACV leading to
clear skies through the entire region. Winds forecasted to remain
lighter today. Coastal southerly winds expected tonight as low
level stratus builds in. Expect IFR to possible LIFR conditions
along the North Coast after 06Z through 18Z tomorrow due to low
ceilings. KUKI expected to have VFR conditions with W/NW winds
through the daylight hours.


&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds will diminish through today, tonight, and
tomorrow. Wind waves will weaken with the winds, leaving a sea state
dominated by a NW swell of 5-6ft@11s. High resolution models show a
southerly reversal forming tonight in Z450 between Humboldt Bay and
Crescent City tonight.

A weak cold front approaches the area Wednesday forcing winds to
turn (or remain) southerly across the northern coastal waters. The
cold front is expected to pass over the area late Wednesday night.
Thursday winds are expected to increase to breeze conditions by the
late afternoon. Winds will remain as strong breezes to near gales
Friday and Saturday. Model guidance shows wind speeds increases
Sunday afternoon, yet confidence is low right now as to how strong
these winds will be. As of right now near gale to gale force
sustained winds are expected late in the weekend into next week as
another cold front rushes over our area from the north.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...A new moon lunar cycle is bringing
higher than usual tides over the next couple of days. An 8.58 FT
tide was recorded at North Spit late last night from a near 0.5 FT
positive tidal anomaly. Advisory level criteria begins at 8.8 FT.
If the current near 0.5 ft tidal anomaly persists, Coastal Flood
Advisory conditions may nearly be reached again near midnight
tonight. There will also be large negative tides near -2 ft
through Thursday morning. The swings from these levels,
particularly from high to low, will create swift, outgoing
currents in channeled waterways. JJW


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

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https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png